Presenting my thesis called "the great short circuit"

Today I want to present my thesis called “The Great Short Circuit,” a diagnostic of what is happening at the core of the financial system

To understand this moment, we must abandon the idea that stocks are worth what earnings dictate and view the market as a physical, mechanical structure. The hypothesis of Inelastic Markets shows the market is not a flexible sponge but a rigid pipe transmitting pressure. This theory says there is a 5-to-1 rule: for every real € entering the market the total value inflates by €5. A rule that would explain the vertical rallies we saw in recent years. In other words, the trillions injected by central banks during the 2015-21 period didn't just sit there, it multiplied fivefold pushing indexes to historic levels

However this mechanical process reached a physical limit following peaks of February 2026 and what we are seeing now is symptoms of a total buyer exhaustion. In an inelastic market, for prices to climb, a constant stream of new liquidity is required, but in our case the pipe is already full: everyone who intended to buy is already in and central banks have stopped handing out money to focus on withdrawing it. We are in a current scenario of saturation where even the smallest leak of capital becomes catastrophic

And today that leak has arrived in the form of an energy crisis. Sky-high energy prices act like a giant vacuum, draining liquidity from the financial system into the real economy. Capital that was once surplus (ending up in equities) is now going down the drain to pay for electricity bills, heating and logistics, freezing the flow of money into the market 

And this is where it gets spicy. The real trap and what makes this crisis unique, is the paralysis of central banks. Historically the system expected a rescue through money printing, but today that bazooka is a suicidal option. A massive social dilemma has emerged: it is politically impossible for the ECB to print trillions to save investor portfolios while families cannot afford heat. Any attempt to inject liquidity would trigger a boomerang effect, as that money would go straight into speculating on energy, further driving up the cost of living and fueling social unrest. For the first time in decades rescuer’s hands are tied and market is left alone to face its fragility 

This leads us inevitably to the operation of the inverse multiplier, the most brutal phase of this short circuit. With no new buyers and no possibility of a rescue, the system will begin to deflate following the same mechanical logic that fueled its growth. When the first investors sell to find liquidity or out of fear, the 5-to-1 factor will activate in reverse. Since the market is inelastic, a small exit of capital triggers a drop in value five times greater (or more). The system will not just fall, it will collapse vertically until financial value finds a level that the real economy can actually sustain 

I just really hope God distributes luck, because if it’s justice…