What oil prices tell us about Norwegian elections

When the economy is doing well, we vote to keep more for ourselves. When it's not, we vote to share more with each other

What happens to Norwegian elections when oil prices rise or fall?

OPEC, the oil cartel, has decided to increase oil production, something that will lead to lower oil prices.

Right now, oil is trading between 60 and 65 USD per barrel. And analyst cannot agree on how low will the price go.

Norway is an oil nation. And 2025 is an election year.

So I thought it could be interesting to look at the historical relationship between real oil prices and government changes in Norway. Is there any visible pattern?

The graph below shows the real Brent crude price (adjusted to 2023 USD) from 1970 to 2023, alongside changes in the ruling party.

Two main things stand out:

  • The center-right Conservative Party (Høyre) tends to win elections after oil prices peak and hold it for two terms.
  • The center-left Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) often returns to power during or after crises, including oil shocks but also broader economic downturns (Norwegian bank crisis, global financial crisis, COVID, etc).

This could suggest that when oil prices and revenues are on the rise, Norwegians become more open to liberal economic policies — like lower taxes and more market-driven reforms.

But when oil prices fall or things feel more uncertain, voters seem to prefer to double down on social democratic policies — redistribution, stronger public services, and a broader safety net.

This is both interesting and obvious.

Interesting, because it hints that oil prices may indeed influence voting behavior in Norway.

Obvious, because that’s how people tend to vote around the world in general. When the economy is doing well, we vote to keep more for ourselves. When it’s not, we vote to share more with each other.

If oil prices continue to fall in the coming months, how do you think it will influence the 2025 election?

More thoughts about the topic

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