Everyone is right about AI, that is why investing in it today is wrong

Investing today in AI is a bad investment precisely because everyone agrees it is an excellent one

To understand this contradiction, look at how an investor’s mind works. Anyone who risks their money does so based on a thesis, a vision of the future: like believing a new technology will change the world. The real problem isn't having that vision, it's what happens when everyone starts believing the exact same thing at the same time

When thousands of people and investment funds share the same opinion, something logical happens: everyone rushes to buy shares in the same companies. Because so many people want to buy the same thing, prices skyrocket

Seeing the prices jump, the hesitant get convinced the idea is right and rush to buy too, driving prices higher. This loop repeats for years until the idea stops looking like a simple opinion and becomes an absolute truth no one questions

That is where the trap lies. The big mistake is believing that financial markets reward you simply for being right. The market doesn't reward you for being correct, it rewards you for seeing something before everyone else does

Making money in investing is about entering at the beginning of that loop, not the end. If you discover a great idea before the rest, you buy something that today is dirt cheap. When others realize its potential years later and flood in, they buy it from you at a much higher price, and that's where you win. But if you invest in AI today, you are entering at the end of the loop. You are buying when the idea is obvious, paying the highest price in history to investors who got there first, with no one left to buy it at a higher price

That’s why an investment thesis can be true and, at the same time, be a terrible investment

If we were back in 1995 and you said the internet was going to change the world, you would have been a visionary because few saw it, buying companies at bargain prices. But today, in 2026, saying AI will change things has no value. It is an idea shared by millions of people. Knowing that the technology will succeed is no longer an advantage because all that future success is already priced into the expensive stock you are forced to pay for today

The question you must ask is no longer whether AI will transform our lives, because the answer is an obvious yes. The right question is whether AI will change the world even more than people already expect and have paid for in advance. Beating expectations that are already sky-high is almost impossible

History shows that great financial bubbles are not born from lies, but from undeniable truths. Investors in the past were right to think that railroads, electricity, or the internet would change the world, because they did

However, most people who invested in them at the peak of the hype lost their money because stock prices moved much faster than the reality of the businesses

A technological revolution always ends up being obvious to everyone, but a good investment almost never is